Japan kicked off the defence of their HSBC Asian Five Nations title with an emphatic 87-10 victory over Kazakhstan last weekend, but even a similarly convincing victory over Hong Kong in round two will have no impact on their rating points or position of 16th.
The Japanese have won their last four meetings with Hong Kong with margins ranging between 49 and 88 points, but a first loss in nearly 11 years could see Japan slide one place if Russia also win their European Nations Cup encounter with Germany in Hanover.
A victory for Hong Kong – currently ranked 31st – on home soil could see them climb around four places, although with so many teams above them also in action on Saturday the exact number of places is dependant on other results.
Six sides ranked between Japan and Hong Kong will take to the pitch in the Asian Five Nations, European Nations Cup or South American Championship this weekend, with all bar Brazil’s match with 33rd ranked Paraguay not doubling as Rugby World Cup 2011 qualifier.
Russia have not met Germany in the nine years since their 89-6 victory, but even a repeat of this will not improve their ranking unless Japan lose to Hong Kong. It is also unlikely that Germany will fall from 26th, although they could end up less than a hundredth above Brazil.
Germany are yet to win on their return to the top tier of the European Nations Cup, but if they could upset one of the continents’ most-improved sides then they could climb one or two places with Russia swapping places with Romania.
South American pride
The other top 20 side in action are Uruguay, who face South American rivals Chile in Montevideo with the winner earning a play-off against Canada or USA – whoever loses their two-legged play-off in July – to determine the Americas 2 qualifier for RWC 2011.
Uruguay began their World Cup qualifying campaign with a 71-3 victory over Brazil on Wednesday, but even if they can beat Chile by more than 15 points then they will not improve their position of 20th, although they will edge closer to USA. Chile could though fall from 24th if they lose heavily and Germany upset Russia by more than 15 points.
Chile have provisionally improved their rating points by beating Paraguay 34-13 in the South American Championship on Wednesday, but they would lose half of that seven-tenth gain with a heavy defeat to Uruguay.
However if Chile can beat Uruguay for the first time since a RWC qualifier in July 2002, then Los Cóndores would jump two places to 22nd, leapfrogging Spain and Korea.
The Koreans themselves travel to Almaty to face Kazakhstan in the Asian Five Nations, but even a win by more than 15 points will only improve their rating by just under a point and not enough to prevent a victorious Chilean side from moving above them.
Uruguay would slide beneath Portugal in defeat, but a loss by more than 15 points and they would also fall beneath their long-time rivals Chile, who would then occupy their highest position since the IRB World Rankings were introduced in October 2003.
Plenty to lose for Paraguay
Even if Chile do see their dream of a first ever Rugby World Cup appearance ended by Uruguay again, Daniel Graco’s side could still see their ranking improve by a place in the event that Kazakhstan upset Korea.
Kazakhstan are currently ranked 34th but could jump into the top 30 if they can beat last year’s Asian Five Nations runners-up in round two of the 2009 Top 5 competition. On the other hand with a defeat, Kazakhstan will slide five places depending on other results.
Paraguay’s loss to Chile will result in a fall from 33rd, unless they can beat Brazil as then they could end the week higher than where they began it and potentially within a few hundredths of their opponents.
If they were to win by more than 15 points then the sides could effectively swap places with Paraguay taking over Brazil’s 28th spot. However a second defeat in the space of two weeks and Paraguay could actually slide out of the top 40.
For that to happen, Paraguay would have to lose by more than 15 points and Sweden also win their European Nations Cup Division 2B encounter in Croatia by the same margin. Sweden would then climb five to 39th with Croatia sliding four places to 49th.
RWC play-off target for Lithuania
Lithuania currently sit two places above Sweden, but could actually slip one place even with a convincing victory over Serbia in their Division 3A match if the Swedes win by more than 15 points against Croatia.
A Croatian victory by a similar margin would see them climb to 43rd, one place behind Lithuania with Sweden falling to 47th. Lithuania may not be able to improve their 42nd position this weekend, but a win would take them to the top of Division 3A and one step closer to facing the winner of the Israel v Slovenia play-off next month.
The one remaining European Nations Cup match this weekend involves the two lowest ranked sides in action, with Israel entertaining Finland in Division 3C with the hosts guaranteed top spot at the halfway stage whether they win, lose or draw in Netanya. This means Israel will face Slovenia – their Division 3B counterparts – in the first of the European play-offs for Rugby World Cup 2011 on 9 May.
Israel will need to win by more than 15 points if they are to improve their ranking of 87th by swapping places with Tahiti above them. Finland sit bottom of the rankings and will remain there even with a repeat of their 27-20 win over Israel in June 2007.
However if they can manage to win by more than 15 points then they would climb one place to 94th with Israel plummeting seven places to replace them at the foot of the IRB World Rankings, albeit only by six hundredths of a rating point.
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.
