Predicting the IRB World Rankings

(IRB.COM) Wednesday 21 November 2012
 
 Predicting the IRB World Rankings
What it's all about: the Pool Allocation Draw for Rugby World Cup 2015 will take place on 3 December in London

The end of year tests are always fiercely contested affairs but this season there’s an added incentive with victories vital in a bid to get the best possible seeding for the Rugby World Cup 2015 Pool Allocation Draw (PAD) on December 3.

The IRB World Rankings will be used to rank the 12 directly qualified teams for England 2015 into three bands for that draw with the sides ranked one to four in band one - and crucially avoiding each other until the knockout stages - those five to eight in band two and the remaining four in band three.

If the Pool Allocation Draw was to happen today (21 November), the bands would be as follows:
Band 1: New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, France
Band 2: England, Argentina, Ireland, Wales
Band 3: Samoa, Scotland, Italy, Tonga
Band 4: Oceania 1, Europe 1, Asia 1, Americas 1
Band 5: Africa 1, Europe 2, Americas 2, Repechage winner

All 12 automatically qualified teams are in action this weekend. Below is a table of exactly how this weekend's results could affect the automatically qualified teams' ratings points. For the purposes of the Rugby World Cup 2015 Pool Allocation Draw all international fixtures up to the day of the PAD will count leaving just one more weekend of matches after this one.

Ireland v Argentina, Dublin
Current rating: Ireland 79.04; Argentina 79.89
If home team wins by more than 15 points: Ire 80.22; Arg 78.71
If home team wins by 15 points or less:  Ire 79.82; Arg 79.10
If away team wins by 15 points or less: Ire 77.82; Arg 81.10
If away team wins by more than 15 points: Ire 77.22; Arg 81.71
If it’s a tie: Ire 78.82; Arg 80.10

England v South Africa, Twickenham
Current rating: England 81.96; South Africa 86.05
If home team wins by more than 15 points: Eng 83.62; SA 84.39
If home team wins by 15 points or less: Eng 83.07; SA 84.94
If away team wins by 15 points or less: Eng 81.07; SA 86.94
If away team wins by more than 15 points: Eng 80.62; SA 87.39
If it’s a tie: Eng 82.07; SA 85.94

Italy v Australia, Firenze
Current rating: Italy 76.61; Australia 85.94
If home team wins by more than 15 points: Ita 79.06; Aus 83.49 
If home team wins by 15 points or less: Ita 78.24; Aus 84.31
If away team wins by 15 points or less: Ita 76.24; Aus 86.31
If away team wins by more than 15 points: Ita 76.06; Aus 86.49
If it’s a tie: Ita 77.24; Aus 85.31

Scotland v Tonga, Aberdeen
Current rating: Scotland 77.42; Tonga 74.51
If home team wins by more than 15 points: Sco 78.04; Tga 73.90
If home team wins by 15 points or less: Sco 77.83; Tga 74.10
If away team wins by 15 points or less: Sco 75.83; Tga 76.10
If away team wins by more than 15 points: Sco 75.04; Tga 76.90
If it’s a tie: Sco 76.83; Tga 75.10

Wales v New Zealand, Cardiff
Current rating: Wales 78.95; New Zealand 92.91
If home team wins by more than 15 points: Wal 81.95; NZ 89.91 
If home team wins by 15 points or less: Wal 80.95; NZ 90.91
If away team wins by 15 points or less: Wal 78.95; NZ 92.91
If away team wins by more than 15 points: Wal 78.95; NZ 92.91
If it’s a tie: Wal 79.95; NZ 91.91

France v Samoa, Paris
Current rating: France 84.99; Samoa 78.79
If home team wins by more than 15 points: Fra 85.11; Sam 78.67 
If home team wins by 15 points or less: Fra 85.07; Sam 78.71
If away team wins by 15 points or less: Fra 83.07; Sam 80.71
If away team wins by more than 15 points: Fra 82.11; Sam 81.67
If it’s a tie: Fra 84.07; Sam 79.71

Note: When teams appear level on ratings points, the rating can be calculated beyond two decimal places in order to split those sides.